Theory Change and Bayesian Statistical Inference

This paper addresses the problem that Bayesian statistical inference cannot accommodate
theory change, and proposes a framework for dealing with such changes. It
first presents a scheme for generating predictions from observations by means of hypotheses.
An example shows how the hypotheses represent the theoretical structure
underlying the scheme. This is followed by an example of a change of hypotheses. The
paper then presents a general framework for hypotheses change, and proposes the
minimization of the distance between hypotheses as a rationality criterion. Finally the
paper discusses the import of this for Bayesian statistical inference.

	romeijn_-_theory_change.pdf